Company Update / Commodities / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Timothy Handerson
- [=PAMA=] volume set to drop 18% yoy in FY20 with US$120-140mn discount (vs. our estimate of -14%/US$150mn); the latter is a positive.
- Gold production will miss target, though we see a volume recovery and higher ASP in FY21F. Maintain Buy.
HE demand remains lacklustre; recovery is slated in FY21-22
Steep drop in [=PAMA=] volume, though discount is manageable
It guides for a 18% drop in [=PAMA=]'s FY20F volume (our estimate of -14%) as most coal producers have lowered production target by 15-20%. It also expects US$120-140mn of discount to be given by [=PAMA=] in FY20F (vs. its previous guidance/our estimate of US$150mn). Despite a bleak volume outlook this year, we believe that its latest discount guidance is a positive surprise. We pencil-in 13-19% revenue growth for [=PAMA=] in FY21-22F on the back of 1) volume recovery (7-8% p.a.) driven by higher coal prices (Newcastle price of US$55/65/70 in FY20/21/22), and 2) minimal discountof US$20-30mn in FY21-22F.
Plenty of upside to Martabe despite short term challenges
Amid suboptimal production activities in Martabe, link to our previous report ).
Maintain Buy as we believe that the weak FY20F has been largely priced in, while expecting a strong EPS recovery in FY21-22F (+21-45% yoy). It now trades at 8x 2021F P/E. below 10-year average of 13x P/E. Main risk is worsening gold/coal prices.
Sumber : IPS
powered by: IPOTNEWS.COM