Headline CPI recorded an inflation of *0.1% mom or 1.4% yoy in Feb21.* The resulting number is aligned with our expectation and consensus at 0.1% mom (1.4% yoy). Core inflation still declining at 1.53% yoy (+1.56% yoy in Jan21), *consumer prices in general indicates still soft domestic demand*
During the month, prices of FnB decelerates to 0.07% mom/1.92% yoy (0.8% mom/2.8% yoy in Jan21). This was largely due to decreasing fresh food prices in the range of 1-5% mom. At the same time, *gold price eased further to +13.7% yoy in Feb21 (+20% yoy in Jan21).* In the meantime, rising oil price (+11.8% mom/+13.5% yoy in Feb21) *shall translate to higher oil import value.* This ultimately will result in *more onshore US$ demand* and add some pressure to Rupiah.
Nevertheless, we expect full year inflation in 2021 to be increasing to c. 3.3% yoy (+1.7% yoy in 2020) on the back of recovering domestic demand. *We believe the lebaran season will be better than last year* to be the turning point for faster domestic demand recovery. (Research - Indo Premier)
Sumber : IPS
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