Sector Update / Automotive /   Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s):  AureliaBarus    ;Halima Yefany 

• 4W wholesale volume rose by 27% mom, supported by more aggressive promotions. FY25 volume was in-line, but 4Q25F margins may weaken.
• Changes in incentive schemes across all 4W segments could reshape the auto wholesale outlook in FY26F.
• Neutral rating maintained, pending government decisions on incentives.

4W rebounded in Dec25; FY25 volume was in-line
4W wholesale volume jumped 27% mom to 94.1k units in Dec25, lifting FY25 volume to 803.7k units (-7% yoy), in-line with our and Gaikindo's assumptions. Astra's Dec25 volume rose 14% mom to 41k units, with FY25 volume at 409.4k units (-15% yoy) and implying a 51% market share, broadly in line with our assumption.
Aggressive promotions and Vinfast deliveries supported volumes
The rebound was supported by more aggressive promotions as average discounts rose 17%/18% mom for Astra/non-Astra brands and sizable VinFast deliveries (8.3% market share). Excluding VinFast, Dec25 volumes still increased by 17% mom. Toyota's average discounts across seven models that we track rose by Rp3mn mom to Rp22mn (+15% mom), led by Rush (+Rp8mn to Rp33mn, or 11% of OTR), while Avanza and Fortuner increased by Rp5mn to Rp25mn/Rp35mn (10%/6% of OTR). Innova Zenix petrol discounts fell by Rp5mn to Rp13mn, while hybrid discounts were unchanged. Daihatsu's average discounts across three tracked models rose by Rp3mn mom to Rp20mn (+17% mom), driven by Xenia (+Rp8mn to Rp28mn, or 11% of OTR), while Ayla and Rocky were flat. Overall, in 4Q25, average discounts for Toyota/Daihatsu increased by 16%/42% qoq. Against 4Q24, discounts were up 54% yoy for Daihatsu but down 5% yoy for Toyota, implying potential 4W margin pressure in 4Q25F. Notably, Toyota/Daihatsu discounts eased by 27%/28% mom in Jan26.
Hyundai raised prices ahead of incentive changes; peersunchanged
Hyundai has begun adjusting selling prices in anticipation of potential changes to incentive schemes (Fig 6), despite no final decision yet. In contrast, other major BEV players, including BYD and Wuling, have kept prices unchanged. The government plans to reduce BEV incentives in 2026, with two options under discussion: 1) Option 1 - 100% PPnBM exemption for ICE vehicles below Rp275mn, hybrids and BEVs below Rp375mn, and pickup vehicles below Rp275mn; BEV incentives differentiated by battery type (NMC: 100% VAT discount; LFP: 6% VAT after a 50% incentive). 2) Option 2 - 100% VAT exemption with the same price caps for ICE, hybrid, BEV, and pickup vehicles, with BEV incentives still differentiated by battery type as in Option 1 (Fig. 7).
2W volume above our estimate; in-line with AISI
In Dec25, 2W wholesale volume reached 461.9k units (-12% mom), bringing FY25 volume to 6.4mn units (+1% yoy). This was 103.2% of our assumption (above our estimate) but in line with AISI 's lower-end guidance.
Retain our Neutral call
Potential changes to BEV incentive schemes could materially alter the 4W volume outlook in FY26F. For now, we maintain our Neutral rating for the sector, pending clarity on government policy.


Sumber : IPS