Sector Update  /  Cement  /    Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s):   Jovent Muliadi     ; Shierly Elizabeth 

• National volume rose +5% yoy (-2% mom) to 6.2mt in Aug26 with bulk increased +7% yoy (-2% mom) vs. bag at +4% yoy (-2% mom).
• INTP
  posted stronger volume growth at +12% yoy (-2% mom) vs.
  SMGR
  at -6% yoy (-4% mom), mainly driven by stronger bulk demand.
• Cumulatively, cement volume growth reached +9% yoy in 8M26 and we expect the demand momentum to continue amid Sep-4Q seasonality.

Aug26 yoy growth was decent despite weaker mom volume
National cement volume grew +5% yoy (-2% mom) to 6.2mt in Aug26, driven by stronger bulk demand at +7% yoy (-2% mom) vs. bag at +4% yoy (-2% mom). By region, Java rose by +5% yoy (-3% mom), supported by West Java (+9% yoy), Banten (+8% yoy), and Central Java (+7% yoy). Meanwhile, ex-Java grew +4% yoy (-1% mom), mainly driven by East Indo (+22% yoy) and Sumatra (+6% yoy). Cumulatively, industry volume reached 43.3mt in 8M26 (+9% yoy), with balanced growth across bulk (+10% yoy) and bag (+9% yoy).

SMGR

volume: weak performance across Java and ex-Java

SMGR

's volume declined by -6% yoy (-4% mom) in Aug26, driven by weaker bulk demand at -6% yoy (-3% mom), while bag was also down -4% yoy (-6% mom). By region, both Java and ex-Java declined -6% yoy (-4% mom). Cumulatively,

SMGR

's volume grew +6% yoy to 19.6mt in 8M26, driven by bag at +7% yoy vs. bulk of +4% yoy.

INTP

volume: broad-based rebound

INTP

's volume increased by +12% yoy (-2% mom) in Aug26, supported by robust growth in bulk at +13% yoy (-2% mom), while bag also grew +11% yoy (-3% mom). By region, Java increased +11% yoy (-4% mom). Meanwhile ex-Java volume rose +13% yoy (+1% mom), led by East Indo (+36% yoy) and Kalimantan (+32% yoy). Cumulatively, 8M26 volume increased +7% yoy to 12.2mt, driven by bulk volume growth of +11% yoy vs. +6% yoy for bag. Meanwhile, non-big 2 players grew +17% yoy in 8M26, led by Hongshi (+60% yoy) and Juishin (+24% yoy).
Volume growth expected to sustain throughout 3Q26
We expect demand momentum to continue, supported by more working days in 2H26, drier season, and seasonally stronger Sep-4Q volume run-rate. Our recent price survey suggests stable pricing in Sep26, with retail cement prices flat on a mom basis in Jakarta and East Java. The sector currently trades at an undemanding valuation of 3.7x EV/EBITDA vs. the 10Y avg of 9.9x


Sumber : IPS