Company Update / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Ryan Winipta ;ReggieParengkuan
- recorded significant increase on both saprolite/limonite sales (+33%/+43% qoq) as well as NPI (+18% qoq) post maintenance in 1H25.
- Along with better volume increase, NPI cash margin also expanded by +24% qoq to US$2.2k/t, while limonite margin also expanded by +44%.
- We estimate to report an EBITDA of US$80mn in 3Q25 (+72% qoq). Maintain Buy rating with Rp745/sh TP.
3Q25 operational: volume & margin improvement across the board
reported robust operational achievement in 3Q25, with significant increase in both saprolite and limonite ore sales (+33% and +43% qoq, respectively) as well as an increase in NPI sales volume (+18% qoq) after a low-base in 1H25 due to maintenance work in 's RKEF . Cash margin improved across the board with saprolite cash margin improving by +50% qoq to US$1.5/wmt. Limonite ore cash margin also improved by +44% qoq to US$6.5/wmt in 3Q25 potentially due to economies of scale, driven by higher production/sales. Similarly, NPI cash margin also improved by +24% qoq to US$2.2k/t. All the cash margin improvements were driven by better cash costs as ASP were relatively flattish on qoq basis (Fig. 1).
HGNM : production and sales volume to restart by 4Q25F
In 3Q25, reported zero sales and production of high-grade nickel-matte ( HGNM ), which was expected, in our view, given the unfavourable pricing environment in previous quarters. However, has recently obtained offtake agreement amid recent improvement in nickel-matte price. We expect to at least obtain US$200-500/t cash margin for its HGNM sales, which was equivalent to around US$3-7mn additional EBITDA per quarter, as per our estimates.
Re-iterate as our top pick with unchanged TP of Rp745/share
In 3Q25, we estimate to report US$80mn EBITDA (+72% qoq). This shall lead to 9M25 EBITDA of US$158mn, equivalent to 82% of ours and 84% consensus. We maintain our NP/EBITDA estimates for now; and along with further improvement in 4Q25F, we maintain our Buy rating for with an unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp745/share. Downside risks include lower than expected RKAB quota approval, further delay in AIM project, and execution risks in slurry pipeline.
Sumber : IPS