Company Update  / 

MDKA

IJ  /   Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s):  Ryan Winipta    ;ReggieParengkuan 

• MDKA
  reported an increase in gold and copper volume by +30% and +47% qoq, respectively;
  MBMA
  also reported volume increase.
• Gold cash margin, however, slightly declined on qoq basis (-4% qoq), due to relatively flattish ASP of US$3.2k/oz (+2% qoq).
• We estimate
  MDKA
  to report US$158mn EBITDA in 3Q25 vs. xxmn in 2Q25; We maintain our Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp3k.

TB Oxide/Gold: volume improvement despite slightly lower margin

MDKA

reported an increase in gold sales volume to 29koz (+30% qoq), which was likely driven by inventory sales - i.e. due to timeline lag between production and sales in 2Q25. ASP was relatively flattish on qoq basis at US$3.2k/oz (+2% qoq) which was lower than the increase in benchmark price (+5% qoq) or c.US$3.4-3.5k/oz in 3Q25. Cash margin, as a result, slightly declined by -4% qoq to US$1.8k/oz on higher cash costs of US$1.4k/oz (+11% qoq). Nevertheless, we expect TB Oxide to deliver an EBITDA of US$60mn in 3Q25 (+50% qoq). Note that there are 15.5koz of gold that is currently hedged in 4Q25F at US$2.9k/oz. This shall indicate relatively flattish ASP movement qoq in 4Q25F, as potentially only ~40% of gold is set to be sold at spot price.
Wetar/Copper: sales volume improvement & higher ASP
Wetar also reported an improvement in sales volume by +47% qoq to 2.5kt in 3Q25, while production also improved by +74% qoq to 3.2kt, thanks to new ore stacking strategy. ASP also improved to US$4.4/lbs (+3% qoq), along with cash costs improvement to US$2.8/lbs (-18% qoq). However, do note that mining activities has been ceased in 3Q25, albeit leaching and copper recovery set to continue until 1Q27F. Management has previously indicated that costs from mining activities has already been expensed through the P&L. Hence, cash costs are set to improve due to Wetar only continuing the leaching activities and not mining.
Maintain Buy rating with unchanged TP of Rp3,000/share
Combined with

MBMA

's EBITDA improvement (report), we estimate

MDKA

to report US$145mn EBITDA in 3Q25 (+64% qoq) or around US$323mn EBITDA in 9M25, higher than ours/consensus forecast (94% IPS/74% consensus). We maintain our NP/EBITDA estimates for now and maintain our Buy rating. Our TP of Rp3,000/share is kept unchanged. Key catalysts include +ve progress on TB copper project, higher gold price environment driven by concern over Fed independence, and aggressive China stimulus.


Sumber : IPS