Exports and imports decelerate to +6.4%/+8.6% yoy in Sep24 (+6.6%/+9.5% yoy in Aug24). Trade surplus rise to US$3.3bn (consensus at +US$1.9bn, trade surplus at US$2.9bn in Aug24). Exports growth were coming mainly from non-oil&gas at +8.1% yoy (+7.5% yoy in Aug24), due to arebound in coal exports at +20.3% yoy (+9% yoy in Aug24).Meanwhile, slower imports were coming from oil&gas at -24% yoy (-0.5% yoy in Aug24), mainly due to the drop in oil prices in Sep24.
In terms of usage, consumer goods imports bounce back to 11.3% yoy in Sep24 (-7.4% yoy in Aug24), suggesting a pick-up in domestic demand. In the meantime, capital goods imports were increasing at +18.4% yoy (+11.9% yoy in Aug24), while raw materials imports slowed to +5.9% yoy (+11.5% yoy in Aug24).
We see the increase in trade surplus to be positive for economic growth in 3Q24.We keep our view that GDP growth may decelerate to c.+4.9% yoy in 3Q24 (+5% in 2Q24), as we see no catalyst for domestic demand but net-exports help to mitigate. We believe more economic activity growth will occur in 4Q24, as the regional election will commence in Nov24.




Sumber : IPS