News & Articles

Friday, December 08, 2023       09:00 WIB

Macro - Pick-up in Nov23 FX reserve from government external debt withdrawals

MacroInsight /Click here for full PDF version

Author(s):Luthfi Ridho;Sevi Vinastya

  • FX reserve rose by US$5bn to US$138.1bn (vs. US$133.1bn in Oct23) from global sukuk issuance and govt external debt withdrawal.
  • Rupiah appreciated by +1% mom/+0.4% yoy to Rp15.5k/US$ (+0.5% YTD) in Nov23 from net foreign inflow at US$1.5bn in Nov23.
  • We expect Rupiah to be relatively stable towards year-end from lower-than-expected onshore US$ demand.
Rebound in FX reserve

FX reserve rose by US$5bn to US$138.1bn in Nov23 from US$133.1bn in Oct23 mainly from Global Sukuk issuance worth of US$2bn and government external debt withdrawal at around c.US$3bn. The forex reserve position was equivalent to 6.3 months of imports or 6.1 months of imports and government debt payments. At the same time, current forex reserve position remains higher than IMFs adequacy ratio by c.14.2% (vs. 13% in Oct23).

Stable Rupiah from capital inflow

Rupiah appreciated by +1 mom/+0.4% yoy to Rp15.5k/US$ in Nov23 (+0.5% YTD) from Rp15.7k/US$ in Oct23 amid net foreign inflow of US$1.5bn into bond market. We see risks to Rupiah may be limited in ST on the back of: (1) lower than expected onshore US$ demand as global oil prices on declining trend at -7.5% mom/-9.7% yoy in Nov23, and (2) lesser likelihood of FFR hikes in Dec23 and thus keeping the spread between BI rate and FFR unchanged at 50bp.

DHE policy inflows still limited while SRBI gained traction

BIs instrument of DHE policy fund recorded stable inflows of US$0.8bn in Nov23 and the past two consecutive months. Since Nov23 supposed to be the final month for DHE policy compliance, we see the total DHE fund absorption to be well below government target at US$61bn in a year (around c.US$5.1bn/month). Furthermore, the government plans to extend the evaluation period for PP no 36/2023 until Feb24 is aimed to increase the compliance rate. Meanwhile, BIs open market instrument SRBI continues to record an inflow of US$4.3bn (vs. US$3.7bn in Oct23) likewise SVBI/SUVBI at US$0.3bn and US$0.1bn in Nov23.

FX reserve is still ample to guard Rupiah stability

We believe the current level of FX reserve is adequate for Rupiah stabilization measure by year-end, if there is any. We expect Rupiah to be at c.Rp15.2k/US$ for FY23s average, implying year-end position to be at around c.Rp15.5k/US$.

powered by: IPOTNEWS.COM

 Previous Page

Untuk informasi, silahkan hubungi kami

Copyright@2013 PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Term of Use | Privacy Policy

Website ini dimiliki dan dioperasikan oleh : Indopremier