Company Update / Plantations / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
A uthor(s): Halima Yefany ;Aurelia Barus
- posted 1Q26 core NP of Rp355bn (-44% qoq; -12% yoy), exceeding our and consensus estimates at 115% of our 1Q26F.
- Sales volume was robust, supported by inventory drawdown, while cash margin improved on lower cash costs.
- Maintain BUY on stronger-than-expected earnings.
1Q26 result: strong beat across the board
In 1Q26, reported core NP of Rp355bn (-44% qoq; -12% yoy), reaching 18%/19% of our and consensus FY26F estimates (3-Y mean: 17%) and 115% of our 1Q26F estimate, a beat. Revenue came at Rp1.3tr (-15% qoq; +3% yoy), accounting for 21%/24% of our and consensus FY26F estimates (3-Y mean: 21%) and 107% of our 1Q26F estimate. This was mainly driven by stronger-than-expected CPO revenue at Rp1tr (-9% qoq; +12% yoy). EBITDA stood at Rp439bn (-46% qoq; -16% yoy), representing 18% of our and consensus FY26F estimates (at 3Y mean) and 110% of our 1Q26F estimate, also above expectations. maintained at zero debt and cash of Rp7.8tr at end-Mar26 (vs. Rp7.6tr at end-Dec25), in line with our estimate.
Solid 1Q26 operational supported by sales volume and lower cash cost
Total palm product (CPO, PK, and derivatives) sales volume reached 92k tonnes (-16% qoq; +10% yoy), exceeding our 1Q26F estimate at 114%, driven by all product segments. CPO sales volume was 73k tonnes (-11% qoq; +12% yoy), while PK products reached 19k tonnes (-30% qoq; flat yoy). Sales volume exceeded production of 82k tonnes (-29% qoq; -1% yoy), indicating inventory drawdown. ASP was mixed: CPO ASP was in line (at 97%) at Rp14.3mn/t (+2% qoq; -1% yoy), while PK ASP was below expectation (at 91%) at Rp11.8mn/t (-3% qoq; -12% yoy). Cash cost came in lower (at 93%) at Rp9.6mn/t (+41% qoq; +5% yoy), driven by lower harvesting and indirect costs. As a result, cash margin exceeded expectations at Rp4.2mn/t (-38% qoq; -17% yoy), reaching 106% of our 1Q26F estimate.
Maintain BUY
We maintain our BUY, despite its share price outperforming peers by 44% YTD, supported by a strong 1Q26 results, attractive potential dividend yield of 6% p.a. in FY26-28F (35% DPR), and a cheaper valuation at 6x FY26F P/E (vs. peers at 8.1-8.2x). We are reviewing our estimates pending further details from the company. Key risks: stronger/weaker sales volume and rising fertilizer prices.
Sumber : IPS
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