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All-time High Trade Surplus at USD4.7 Billion may Support Economic Growth in 3Q21
Wednesday, September 15, 2021       13:20 WIB

Both exports and imports spiked to grew by 64.1% and 55.3% yoy in Aug21 (+29.3% and +44.4% yoy in Jul21). Trade surplus soared to US$4.7bn (+US$2.6bn Jul21). The trade surplus was more than doubled from consensus/ours at US$2.3bn/US$1.8bn. We see the external trade to be robust in 2021 supported mainly by commodity exports.
Exports of CPO, Coal and Iron&Steel dominates the non-oil&gas exports during the month. In the meantime, imports of all types of goods accelerated including consumer goods. We believe this is to anticipate the relaxation of the emergency PPKM , where consumption may increase from more people mobility.
We see the development in external trade to be promising going forward and be one of the main engine of growth in 2H21. We believe the performing export-oriented companies may eventually create a positive spiraling effect to other domestic companies. This may prevent economic growth deceleration caused by the inevitable emergency PPKM , in our view. (Indo Premier Research)




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