Sector Update / Banks / Click here for full PDF version
Author: Jovent Muliadi ;Axel Azriel
- Aggregate big 4 bank-only profit of Rp62.1tr in 4M26 (+8% yoy) came in-line. outperformed in earnings and PPOP growth at +19/14% yoy.
- Big 4 bank-only NIM fell by -18bp yoy to 5.1% on lower asset yield (-46bp yoy), while CoF has improved by -31bp yoy.
- We maintain OW on the back of attractive valuation. and remains our top pick.
4M26 bank-only results: in-line; led earnings and PPOP growth
Aggregate big 4 bank-only earnings grew +8% yoy to Rp62.1tr in 4M26 (-16% mom), broadly in-line with our/cons FY26F consol growth estimates at +6/5%. This was led by (+19% yoy), while others were soft at +3% to +6% yoy. also outperformed others in PPOP growth at +14% yoy, followed by at +12% yoy. NIM fell -18bp yoy to 5.1% from lower asset yield (-46bp yoy) which offset CoF improvement (-31bp yoy). Loan grew +14% yoy while deposits rose +13% yoy, translating to stable LDR of 89% in 4M26.
: soft PPOP from flat NII while CoC came slightly behind guidance
bank-only net profit of Rp20.8tr in 4M26 (+3% yoy/-29% mom) came in-line with our/consensus estimates. PPOP was soft (+2% yoy) amid flat NII and modest non-II (+7% yoy) while opex inched up by +1% yoy. Provision fell -16% yoy (-105% mom), translating to lower CoC of 0.3% (-10bp yoy/-13bp mom), slightly behind guidance of 40-50bp. NIM fell to 5.5% (-40bp yoy) amid lower asset yield (-40bp yoy) while CoF stood flat. Loan grew +5% yoy vs. deposit growth of +9% yoy, translating to lower LDR of 77% vs. 80% in 4M25.
: in-line as modest PPOP was offset by elevated CoC
bank-only net profit came at Rp15.9tr in 4M26 (+6% yoy/-2% mom); in-line. PPOP grew at +4% yoy amid declining non-II (-5% yoy) and modest NII (+7% yoy). Provision grew +2% yoy (+15% mom), translating to CoC of 3.4% (-19bp yoy/flat mom), still above guidance of 2.9-3.2%. NIM inched up +2bp yoy to 6.6% from lower CoF (-70bp yoy) which offset asset yield decline (-62bp yoy). Loan grew +11% yoy vs. deposit of +7% yoy, bringing LDR higher to 92% vs. 89% in 4M25.
: strong PPOP and earnings growth; but CoC remained behind
bank-only net profit of Rp18.1tr in 4M26 (+19% yoy/-5% mom) also came in-line despite robust PPOP growth at +14% yoy from solid NII (+10% yoy) and tepid opex (+2% yoy), while non-II came modest at +6% yoy. Provision fell -17% yoy (+1% mom), bringing CoC to 0.5% (-22bp yoy/+2bp mom), behind guidance of 0.6-0.8%. NIM fell -26bp yoy to 4.3% from lower asset yield (-64bp yoy) despite CoF improvement (-41bp yoy). Loan grew +18% yoy vs. deposit of +17% yoy, translating to LDR of 94% vs. 92% in 4M25.
: solid PPOP was offset by higher CoC
booked bank-only net profit of Rp7.3tr in 4M26 (+6% yoy/-26% mom), in-line. PPOP came solid at +12% yoy amid strong NII (+14% yoy) and non-II (+11% yoy) despite higher opex (+15% yoy). Provision rose +30% yoy (+102% mom), translating to higher CoC of 1.0% (+12bp yoy/+10bp mom), in-line with guidance of 1.0-1.2%. NIM inched up +8bp yoy to 3.8% from higher asset yield (+17bp yoy) despite higher CoF (+7bp yoy). Loan grew +21% yoy while deposit rose higher at +26% yoy, translating to lower LDR of 90% vs. 93% in 4M25.
Sumber : IPS