Index Analysis / MSCI Index / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Ryan Winipta ; Reggie Parengkuan
- We think has the highest likelihood for an inclusion to MSCI standard cap index during Feb26 index review.
- While may have fulfilled minimal price cutoff, inclusion to standard index could be postponed due to >1 day suspension.
- is another candidate that could be included; Additionally, at current price level, there won't be any exclusion from standard index.
: current market cap already above threshold
We think has one of the highest likelihood for an inclusion to MSCI Standard Cap index during Feb26 index review with Rp315/share as the minimum threshold (current price: Rp326/share) for an inclusion, as per our estimates. Note that is already a member of MSCI 's IMI (Investible Market Indexes) and currently is a member of MSCI Small Cap index. We also checked that: despite share price doubling mom (+117%), it is still compliant to MSCI extreme price increase rule, unless share price went above >Rp700/share by late Jan26 (review period).
: another 15-20% increase shall trigger an inclusion
Aside from , we think has the second highest chance for an inclusion to MSCI standard-cap index as it only requires its share price to increase by ~15-20% from current price level (Fig. 1). Similar to , is also a member of MSCI Small Cap Indonesia Index. MSCI has also updated 's free-float to 30% at the latest index review, from previously 25%, which lead to a lower price cut-off of Rp11-12k/share (vs. Rp13-14k/share initially).
: inclusion could be postponed due to Watchlist Board criteria
While share price has been trading above market-cap and free-float market cap threshold, based on our estimates, we think its inclusion to MSCI standard-cap index could be postponed by at least another quarter (eligible by May26 review), given that has already been suspended by more than a day (starting 8 December 2025). Based on MSCI methodology, MSCI will not allow any size segment migration (from small to standard-cap) or inclusion, if the shares are under Watchlist Board Criteria 10 (more than 1 day share suspension), starting from previous index review price cut-off date (13 October 2025) until three business days before current index review effective date (2 March 2026).
Likely no exclusion from Indonesia standard-cap at current price level
At current price level, we do not expect any exclusion from MSCI Indonesia standard cap index, with and having the lowest weighting in the index at the moment (around 1.5-2% weighting each). However, exclusion may happen shall share price to decline by at least another ~20%, while has more buffer in our view, as it requires 30-40% decline from current share price for an exclusion. Another notable stock to monitor is , in our view, as an update to its free-float (at least to 15%), shall enable inclusion at around Rp4.1-4.2k/share (vs. Rp3.7k/share currently).
Sumber : IPS