GDP growth recorded at +5.05% yoy in 2Q24 (+5.11% yoy in 1Q24),a bit higher than consensus/our expectation at roughly +5.0% yoy. Growth in the 2Q24 was supported by a rebound in investments at +4.4% yoy (+3.8% yoy in 1Q24) and net-exports at +6.9% yoy (-1.1% yoy in 1Q24). The rebound in investments was a surprise, as it never happened in the previous three elections.
On sector breakdown, growth was mainly coming from transportation and hotel&restaurant at +9.6%/10.2% yoy in 2Q24 (+8.6%/+9.4% yoy in 1Q24). The increase was broadly aligned with school holiday seasonality.
We expect full year GDP growth to be flat at c.+5.0% yoy in FY24/FY23.The flattish economic growth is sourced from lower-than-expected household consumption due to: (1) weaker than expected purchasing power from slower minimum wage growth and (2) possibility of higher household tax expenditure. In the meantime, investment may mitigate the lower-than-expected consumption due to (1) possibility of higher government capital spending in 2H24 and (2) better investment prospect in 2H24 emanating from clearer political situation.



Sumber : IPS