Company Update / Automotive /

ASII

IJ /  Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s) : Timothy Handerson, Anthony 

• Mar21 wholesale 4W volume of 85k (+11% yoy/+73% mom) already at par with pre-Covid run-rate; overall non-
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  volume still lagging
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  's.
• Retail 4W volume of 78k (+28% yoy/+65% mom) formed 92% of preCovid;
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  saw stronger traction from higher exposure to <1500 cc cars.
• Despite tightening supply (2-3 months waiting time), we still believe that Kemenperin's FY21F target of 830-850k is achievable. Maintain Buy.

A steep mom increase in Mar21 wholesale 4W volume
National wholesale 4W volume reached 85k (+11% yoy/+73% mom) in Mar21, which formed 99% of pre-Covid run-rate (based on average monthly volume in FY19) as producers raised volume in response to the PPnBM relaxation introduced back in Mar21. Both

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(-1% yoy/-72% mom) and non-

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(+27% yoy/+73% mom) saw similar mom volume pick-up in Mar21, though non-

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wholesale volume (96% of pre-Covid) still lagged

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's (101% of pre-Covid). Cumulatively, national 4W wholesale volume was -21% yoy (+17% qoq) in 1Q21 with

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market share of 53% (vs. 55% in 1Q20).

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indicated that it plans to maintain flat mom production in Apr, before expecting lower volume in May due to Lebaran holiday.

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retail sales volume outpacing non-

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volume
National retail 4W volume stood at 78k (+28% yoy/+65% mom) in Mar21, forming 89% of pre-Covid run-rate.

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(+35% yoy/+79% mom - 92% of preCovid) saw stronger yoy/mom pick-up in retail demand vs. non-

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(+21% yoy/+52% mom - 87% of pre-Covid), which was due to better brand equity and higher exposure to < 1500cc cars eligible for PPnBM relaxation (55-58% of total volume). Cumulatively, national 1Q21 retail sales volume was still down by 19% yoy (+4% qoq). We expect the strong retail volume sales to continue in Apr, still supported by the on-going PPnBM relaxation.
Stretched supply
Despite higher wholesale volume in Mar, our checks as of early Apr revealed that inventory for most dealers have declined, with buyers having to wait 2-3 months for delivery of popular models (Avanza/Rush/Fortuner). We expect demand to normalize starting in Jun amid smaller magnitude of relaxation (50% PPnBM discount in Jun-Aug vs. 100% in Mar-May), which shall ease pressure on supply. However, we still think that Kemenperin's FY21F 4W volume target of 830-850k (+57-60% yoy) remains achievable, which presents 15%/3% upside to our FY21F auto/consolidated net profit forecast.
Maintain Buy
Maintain Buy amid the positive volume trend.

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is now trades at 11x FY21F P/E vs. 10Y avg of 15x P/E. Risk is worsening macro.


Sumber : IPS