*Imports continue to accelerate at +25.7% yoy in Mar21, domestic demand recovery gained pace*
Both exports and imports continue to grow higher at +30.5% and +25.7% yoy in Mar21 (+8.5% and +14.9% yoy in Feb21). *Trade balance still in a surplus territory of US$1.6bn (+US$2.0bn in Feb21).* The trade surplus was broadly inline with consensus (US$1.6bn), but higher than our internal estimation (US$0.9bn).
All types of imported goods rebounded, *led by capital goods import at +33.7% yoy (+17.7% yoy in Feb21).* This is consistent with the starting of several infra projects and the increase in government capital spending. Meanwhile, exports of CPO and iron&steel led the non-oil&gas export growth at 78.5% and 69.2% yoy
We see the increasing import figures as a sign of higher speed in domestic demand recovery. *We maintain our growth forecast range of 2.08% - 4.45% in 2021* and reiterate the lebaran festive as the first check-point for further upside in economic growth. (Indo Premier Research)



Sumber : IPS