IP Report: TBIG Trading at Discount Again? Opportunity to BUY
Tuesday, November 19, 2019       13:51 WIB
  • : Trading at Discount Again? Opportunity to BUY
  • CPO: Government will put B30 distribution to test - are you believer of B30?

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: 3Q result in-line EBITDA and excellent operating performance
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  • 9M19 EBITDA grew in line (+8.2% YoY), driven by tenancies addition of 11.7% YoY. Slight miss on profit due to higher than expected tax.
  • Strong tenancy addition increased the overall tenancy ratio to 1.8x. Most of the new tenants added in 3Q19 came from Hutchison 3 Indonesia.
  • Gross tenant addition of 2,578 in 9M19 is ahead of FY19 target of 3,000 tenant addition (86% achieved). Maintain Buy.

 I think looking at 's current valuation + Solid 3Q19 Results + Business outlook remains intact, making this stock an interesting BUY  
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Towers - The conundrum between consolidation and expansion
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BIG POTENTIAL - More Data Consumption means more Towers required
We can expect mobile data consumption per user to increase as Indonesia usage has only reached 4GB/user/month (vs. China 6GB/user/month & India 10 GB/user/month)
Indonesia's Tower penetration is still relatively low
To avoid the capacity constraint, Indonesia's 4G BTS would have to grow by around 70,000 more units to be on par with China's current utilization of 15TB/BTS. Those new build can potentially generate around Rp110tn worth of revenue for the independent tower companies to grab.
EV / EBITDA Relative Valuation - is trading at DISCOUNT again - I think deserves premium valuation towards given mixed of tenant / customers they have, which is Telkomsel (It has the most Coverage across Indonesia)

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Government will put B30 distribution to the test
The government is currently preparing 8 fuel terminals as pilot projects to distribute B30 fuel. The distribution will be made largely through pipes, trucks, and also ships, and will be done in Nov-Dec19. (Kontan)
How high can you go? Are you a believer of B30?
CPO price could increase up to MYR2,700 / US$650 per ton
Palm oil production growth to slow down in 2020
  1. Deficit would occur (mostly in 1H20), palm oil stock will decrease and price would go up.
  2. Palm oil price would increase to above MYR2,700 per ton ($650 per ton)

Everything seems like it is dependent on Indonesia's Bio Diesel Policy and Commitment.
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Snippets
Ministry of Industry gets Rp40tr of investment commitment from Japan
The ministry has obtained Rp40tr of investment commitment from several Japanese conglomerates that will come into Indonesia by 2023. This was a result of its visit to Japan and South Korea scheduled in 16-20 Nov 2019, where it met some of the largest Japanese companies such as Nippon Steel Corp, AGC Inc., Mitsubishi Motors, Toyota Group, Suzuki Motor Corp., Isuzu Japan, and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. Among others Toyota reportedly wants to invest another Rp28tr in Indonesia over the next 5 years, while Honda is looking to add another Rp5.1tr of new investments in the next 3 years, largely to develop new models. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Creditors' exposure to Duniatex reaches Rp22.4tr
Debtwire's data shows that based on the latest verification, the creditors' exposure to Duniatex has increased to Rp22.4tr from Rp18.6tr previously reported in Jul19. exposure is recorded at Rp2.2tr (vs. Rp1.5tr previously) and 's at Rp500bn (vs. Rp459bn previously). Eximbank still has the largest exposure (Rp3.1tr). (Kontan)
OJK wants Muamalat's investor to come in as soon as possible
The discussion and analysis on several financial institutions are ongoing. The parliament cited that specifically for Bank Muamalat, it will most likely form a task force to accelerate the rescue project, although as of now the solution/scheme has not been finalized. (Kontan)

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