Both exports and imports continue to grew by 47.6% and 40.3% yoy in Sep21 (+64.1% and +55.3% yoy in Aug21). Trade surplus remained very high at USD4.4bn (US$4.7bn in Aug21), to make an all time quarterly trade surplus of USD11.7bn in 3Q21. The trade surplus was higher than consensus/ours at USD3.9bn/US$3.1bn.
Exports of Coal dominates the non-oil&gas exports during the month and the quarter (191% yoy and 145% yoy). In the meantime, imports of consumer goods continue to accelerate, indicating continuation domestic demand recovery in the aftermath of the emergency PPKM implementation.
We see the external trade development to be positive on economic activity in 3Q21 and expect 4.5% yoy economic growth. We believe the performing export-oriented companies may eventually create a positive spiraling effect to other domestic companies. This may prevent economic growth deceleration in FY21 caused by the inevitable emergency PPKM , in our view. (Indo Premier Research)



Sumber : IPS